Rex Nelson: Arkansas College Football Picks – The Johnny Football Edition

After picking nine games last week, I realized that I had predicted the Arkansas team to win eight of those contests.

I love this state, but I’m not a homer. My record is important to me. Each week, I select the teams I think will win, not necessarily the teams I want to win. And I thought every Arkansas team last week would win with the exception of UAPB.

As it turned out, the record was 7-2.

Arkansas teams in the Great American Conference went 5-0 against opponents from Oklahoma, just as had been predicted.

UCA edged Missouri State in Springfield, just as had been predicted. The pick here was UCA winning 21-20. It was 17-13.

UAPB lost by less than a touchdown to Alcorn State, just as had been predicted.

In the end, the two FBS teams from Arkansas were the ones that didn’t come through.

Had the Razorbacks prevented that last Rutgers touchdown, the Southern Fried prediction of 24-22 in favor of Arkansas would have been almost on the money.

It was, of course, not to be.

Who could have guessed a few years back that Arkansas would go “0 for Rutgers” during a two-year period?

Now the Hogs enter that four-game stretch of Texas A&M, Florida, South Carolina and Alabama. This isn’t going to be fun for the Razorback true believers.

Just as was the case last year in Fayetteville, Rutgers quarterback Gary Nova picked Arkansas apart. This time, he completed 22 of his 43 passes for 346 yards and three touchdowns. In two games against the Razorbacks, Nova has passed for 743 yards and eight touchdowns. In the fourth quarter Saturday, he was seven of 13 for 147 yards and two touchdowns.

Nova has just four 300-yard passing games in his career, and half of them have come against the Razorbacks.

Maybe it’s a good thing that Arkansas will replace Rutgers with Texas Tech the next two years.

The bigger story, though, was the way Arkansas’ offensive line was whipped down the stretch. That poor performance prevented the Hogs from having the type of ball-control offense that Bret Bielema prefers. The goal was to limit Nova’s time on the field. Because of the futile effort of its offensive line, Arkansas was unable to achieve that goal. The Razorbacks had just three yards rushing on six carries in the fourth quarter. The total fourth-quarter yardage was 35.

The Alex Collins-Jonathan Williams streak of 100-yard games came to a screeching halt.

Collins came in averaging 139 yards a game. He had 63 against Rutgers.

Williams came in averaging 131 yards a game. He had 25 against Rutgers.

The biggest egg of the weekend was laid by Arkansas State. The Red Wolves were just awful in a 31-7 loss to Memphis, a game that most people had picked ASU to win.

It was already 24-7 in favor of the Tigers at halftime as Memphis won its first game of the season.

ASU is 2-2 with a trip to Missouri looming this weekend. Even the Red Wolves’ earlier Sun Belt Conference win over Troy now looks less impressive considering the Trojans’ 62-7 loss last Saturday to a mediocre Mississippi State team.

It was ASU’s most lopsided loss in the series against Memphis since 1997. The Red Wolves had just 255 yards of offense, and quarterback Adam Kennedy was sacked seven times. Memphis, meanwhile, had 505 yards of offense with 329 yards of that coming on the ground.

Last week’s 7-2 prediction performance made the record 25-6 for the year.

On to the picks for Week 5:

Texas A&M 41, Arkansas 24 — The word is that Johnny Manziel doesn’t accept checks or credit cards. So bring cash to Fayetteville on Saturday if you want an autograph. The 3-1 Aggies warmed up for their game in Arkansas with a 42-13 win over SMU. Manziel had 244 yards passing with one touchdown in that game. He ran for 102 yards with two more touchdowns. I’ll say this for the Arkansas defense: It plays hard. But effort alone won’t be enough against Manziel & Co.

On to the remaining Arkansas College Football Picks for Week 5: