Rex Nelson: Arkansas College Football Predictions – Week 6

 

Editor’s Note: Each week throughout football season Sporting Life Arkansas excerpts Rex Nelson’s Weekly Arkansas College Football Predictions and links to Rex’s Southern Fried Blog for his full predictions. Rex makes his prediction for every four-year college football team in the state. Enjoy.

Rex Nelson Archive PageFor three consecutive weeks, I’ve gone 8-1 on the picks.

For two consecutive weeks, I’ve been unable to figure out the Boll Weevils of the University of Arkansas at Monticello.

Two weeks ago, I picked UAM to beat the woeful club from Northwestern Oklahoma. The Weevils lost.

Last week, I figured the 0-3 Weevils would lose to a Southwestern Oklahoma team that came to Drew County with a 2-1 record following victories over Arkansas Tech and Southern Arkansas. The Weevils won convincingly, 33-14.

I was on the mark with everything else, including the prediction that Texas A&M would knock off Arkansas in Arlington, Texas. Granted, I would have been glad to have been wrong on that one.

The Razorbacks’ Southeastern Conference losing streak is now 14 games.

This is painful, I know, but here’s a quick recap: Arkansas led 28-14. It was the first play of the fourth quarter. Jonathan Williams ran 55 yards to the Aggie 1. With a 21-point lead, there would have been no way at that point for Arkansas to lose.

But tackle Dan Skipper was called for tripping. The 55-yard run was nullified, and the game changed course. And it changed course drastically.

From that point on, the Aggies outscored Arkansas 21-0 and outgained the Hogs 233 yards to 89 yards.

A&M had just 182 yards passing through three quarters, but the Aggies had 204 yards passing in the fourth quarter and overtime. Arkansas was unsuccessful on six third-down conversion attempts in the fourth quarter and overtime.

So the most recent SEC victory for the Hogs is still almost two years ago — Oct. 13, 2012, against Kentucky.

There’s an open date this week, and then Alabama comes to town.

With the Hogs open, it’s a chance for college football fans across the state to catch a game in Arkadelphia (where there are two contests), Jonesboro, Magnolia or Russellville on Saturday.

With that 8-1 record last week, the record for the season moves to 37-3. I shouldn’t be complaining, I guess. But dang those Weevils. A record of 39-1 would sound even better.

Let’s get to the picks for Week 6:

Arkansas State 29, Louisiana-Monroe 28 — This is a tough game to figure. It’s likely to be close. Louisiana-Monroe opened the season with wins of 17-10 over Wake Forest and 38-31 over Idaho before losing 31-0 to LSU in Baton Rouge. Last week, the Warhawks struggled at home before overcoming the weakest Troy team in years by just two points, 22-20. Arkansas State has had two weeks to prepare for this game following a 21-14 overtime victory over Utah State that evened the Red Wolves’ record at 2-2 heading into Sun Belt Conference play. ASU leads the series with Louisiana-Monroe, 21-14, since the first meeting in 1959. The Red Wolves have a 9-4 series lead since both teams have been in the Sun Belt. ASU has won in each of the past four seasons, including a 42-14 victory last year in Monroe. We’ll give a slight advantage to the home team due to the two weeks of preparation and the fact that it’s homecoming at Jonesboro.

Stephen F. Austin 24, UCA 21 — The Bears face their old coach, Clint Conque, down in the piney woods of east Texas on Saturday night. Conque has Stephen F. Austin off to a good start. After a 55-16 loss at Kansas State to open the season, the Lumberjacks have posted victories of 38-3 over Incarnate Word of Texas, 38-17 over Texas A&M-Commerce and 35-20 over Weber State. The 2-3 Bears have been hard to figure out in their first year under Steve Campbell. They got a break last week in getting to play poor ol’ Nicholls State, which lost to an FBS (Arkansas), a Division II (Henderson) and an FCS (UCA) team from the state of Arkansas all in the month of September. UCA downed the Colonels, 52-18, in a game in which the Bears never punted and even had two touchdown drives led by their third-team quarterback.

Southern University 17, UAPB 10 — The Golden Lions fell to 1-3 with a 33-30 loss to Jackson State in overtime last Saturday in Pine Bluff. UAPB was held to a 21-yard field goal in overtime, and then Jackson State scored on a 15-yard quarterback scramble. Southern is 2-3. The wins have been by scores of 56-14 over Central Methodist and 34-24 over Prairie View A&M. The losses have been by scores of 45-6 to Louisiana-Lafayette, 51-27 to Northwestern State of Louisiana and 56-16 to Alcorn State. SWAC games can be tough to figure. We’ll give Southern the nod since the game is being played at Baton Rouge.

For Rex’s complete Arkansas College Football Picks this week, click here.

 

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