MOBILE, Ala. – I am not an expert on football odds. The best I can tell is Ball State is about a touchdown or more favorite in Sunday’s GoDaddy Bowl in Mobile, Ala., over Arkansas State.
But odds and point spreads never really concerned me. My only concern at the end of the day was to have one more point than the other guy.
Why is Ball State a big favorite over the Red Wolves? Well I do know enough about Vegas to know they are not really concerned about winning and losing; they just want as close to the same amount of money bet on both sides. They get their cut and stay happy and prosperous.
At first glance, the most noticeable issue would be records. The Cardinals are 10-2 and the Red Wolves are 7-5.
How did the Cards get to 10-2? Well that got a big boost from their schedule. Here are some of the Ball State victims – 2-10 Eastern Michigan, 4-8 Kent State, 1-11 Western Michigan, 0-12 Miami, 3-9 Army, 2-10 Virginia, 5-6 Illinois State and 5-7 Akron.
So we have eight victories over teams with losing records. There is one victory each over 7-5 Toledo and 6-6 Central Michigan.
In Arkansas State’s seven victories, there has not been one over a team with a winning record. But there are four over teams that were 6-6. The Red Wolves also had three on the schedule who did not do much winning this season – UAPB, Idaho and winless Georgia State – and they took care of business in those contests.
When it comes to playing teams with winning records, neither team had a lot of success. The Cards lost to 9-4 North Texas, which had lost nine straight to the Red Wolves before bolting for Conference-USA, and lost to 12-2 Northern Illinois.
Arkansas State went 0-4 against 12-1 Auburn, 11-2 Mizzo, 9-4 UL-Lafayette and 8-4 Western Kentucky. (And we must include that dreadful afternoon in the Bluff City where the Red Wolves were humiliated by the 3-9 Memphis Tigers.)
So after going through all of that, we figure things are pretty much a wash. If the Red Wolves played Ball State’s schedule, they would have more than seven victories and if the Cardinals had Arkansas State’s schedule that would not have 10 victories.
So what does that mean for Sunday? Probably the same old things: the one who controls the line of scrimmage and does not have turnovers wins.
A quick check of conference power rankings proved little since two had the MAC ranked above the Sun Belt and two didn’t.
But we close with one final stat – strength of schedule according to realtimerpi.com had A-State at 156 and Ball State at 243.
There are 16 players on the Arkansas State roster from Alabama.
There are two commitments, and if things go well in the next month before signing day, there will be more.
To say this state that has mainly been a battleground between two in-state schools been at the heart of the Red Wolves’ revival is an understatement. It has been vital.
You have to give credit for former coach – yes it seems like these days a lot of A-State coaches come with that moniker – Steve Roberts who made headway into the state during his 10-year tenure. Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin continued the pattern. And with new coach Blake Anderson’s roots in the area, expect it to continue.
For a lot of the 16 this is week is a homecoming. They also get to play in their home state since South Alabama and Troy are Sun Belt Conference members. And the Red Wolves also had Auburn on the schedule this season, the second time in four seasons. So for the fourth time in the past 366 days, the Red Wolves will play a game in Bama.
A closer look at this year’s team, which plays in the GoDaddy Bowl on Sunday night in Mobile, shows just how important these guys are to this year’s team.
Linebacker Qushaun Lee, known as Q among the Red Wolves family, was first-team All-Sun Belt Conference as a junior. The Prattsville product has produced more than 100 tackles the past two seasons. Classmate Sterling Young from Hoover, a safety who has shown a knack for big plays that have led to victories the best two seasons, Heflin sophomore Rocky Hayes, who was an offensive start who earned recognition as a cornerback this season and soph defensive end Chris Stone (Daleville) were honored this season.
Oh yeah, and some dude named J.D. McKissic, a sophomore from Phenix City. All McKissic, who some could argue is the most valuable player in the league, was earned first-team all-conference honors as a wide receiver and all-purpose and was also second-team as a kick returner.
“I would rank McKissic with any of the top players in the MAC,’’ said Ball State coach Pete Lembo. “He is very, very good.”
The Alabama production does not end there. Throw in Chris Humes (Hoover) and Amos Draper (Tanner) and six of the defensive starters are playing in their home state.
And the best news for the Red Wolves, other than Draper, they are all underclassmen.
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Jeff Reed is editor of Astatenation.com. He is on twitter @ASUJeffReed.
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