By Tim Giattina
Following Alabama’s epic victory over Mark Richt’s supremely talented yet supremely soft Georgia Bulldogs, the calls and texts flooded in from both Alabama and Notre Dame friends: “So who are you cheering for?”
Notre Dame v Alabama. It just doesn’t get any better than this. College football’s most storied programs are finally meeting again and one of these giants will return to campus with the most coveted crystal in sports. As a native Alabamian and an alumnus of Notre Dame, ultimately this is a win-win for me.
But I’ve decided. I’m going to go with my alma mater and cheer for the heavy underdog Irish.
This is the matchup that should bring legendary broadcaster Keith Jackson out of retirement. Jackson’s call of the greatest play-that-didn’t-count, “TEAGUE’S GOT THE BALL!” still rings in my head like it was yesterday.
During our initial conversation about the matchup, the fine folks at SportingLifeArkansas asked me to provide the matchup breakdown. What follows is my most objective, least homer, analysis and prediction of what has always been my dream national title game.
Alabama on Offense
Remember the statistic 49-0—not because it was the score of the glorified scrimmage this year against little brother—but because Alabama is an astounding 49 and 0 when rushing for over 150 yards since 2008. If they get the ground game going, it could be a long night for the Irish.
Manti Te’o is the household name, but the two defenders who will define the success of the Irish are Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt. Louis Nix, like Alabama’s Aussie Jesse Williams, is tasked with taking up space in the middle. Nix usually commands two blockers, helping free up Te’o and the Irish linebackers to make plays. Can Barrett Jones, the most versatile offensive lineman of his generation, take care of Nix by himself or will he need help?
It’s no secret by now that Barrett Jones has been hobbled by an injury he suffered in the first quarter of the Georgia game. All indications from the Bama camp are that he will be ready to go. If he doesn’t play, or exits the game, insert Ryan Kelly (a highly capable yet inexperienced freshman) and things get very, very interesting.
Stephon Tuitt wreaked havoc on backfields all season. Can he do the same to Bama and apply pressure to McCarron? During Bama’s toughest games this year (A&M, LSU, UGA), McCarron had a tendency of holding onto the ball a split second too long (though he doesn’t make many mistakes throwing balls into coverage). If Tuitt and the rest of the Notre Dame line can disrupt the running game while making McCarron uncomfortable, their chances of pulling off the upset improve exponentially.
If McCarron has time, however, he can pick defenses apart. And if his favorite target, true freshman Amari Cooper, gets loose then the offense will open up even more for Alabama. If the Irish have an Achilles’ heel, it’s in their secondary, though the group continues to mature. Due to injuries, true freshman KeiVarae Russell (the first true freshman to start at CB in ND history) and junior Bennett Jackson were thrust into starting roles. To lessen the pressure on their corners Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco has usually kept the two safeties back in coverage. This puts the responsibility of stopping the run completely on the front seven.
Doug Nussmeier, Bama’s first-year Offensive Coordinator, has used play action and screens effectively all year, so look for at least a few deep shots to Cooper and some screens to Yeldon or Lacy. If McCarron can complete some passes and keep Notre Dame’s defense guessing, this may open up the running game and allow Bama to impose their will. If the Irish can stuff the run early, pressure McCarron, get off the field, and build some confidence early then they will hang around.
Notre Dame on Offense
Monday night will be the biggest stage in Golson’s life. How he handles the moment and how Kelly helps him handle the moment will have an enormous bearing on how well Notre Dame competes. Kelly called masterful games in the youngster’s two biggest road tests: primetime matchups in Norman and Los Angeles.
Alabama’s defensive blueprint is similar to Notre Dame’s. Stop the run. Get the offense behind the chains in longer downs and distances. Attack. Once again, Saban and Kirby Smart have this rebuilt Tide defense ranking among the leaders in most statistical categories. Unlike last year, this defense does not benefit from first round draft picks all over the field but they’re well-coached, well-prepared and they do not make many mistakes.
Like Notre Dame, the Tide defense is weaker in the secondary—away from number 28, Dee Milliner, that is. Milliner is the top NFL corner prospect in the country and teams have had success going away from him. Additionally, Bama linebacker CJ Mosley is equally adept in coverage (much like his counterpart Manti Te’o) and possesses the speed and range to play from sideline to sideline. Freshman Geno Smith and JUCO transfer Deion Belue are both very talented but opponents have gone after them, in addition to exploiting matchups when safety Vinnie Sunseri is up in coverage.
Kelly must line up Notre Dame’s top target, TE Tyler Eifert and the multitalented running back, Theo Riddick, all over the field and match them up with defenders other than Milliner. Eifert presents matchup problems for anyone and defenses responded by consistently doubling him all year. Riddick, in addition to being the feature back of ND’s three-headed rushing attack, also spent part of his career at receiver, so his versatility has paid dividends for Kelly’s offense.
One area of concern for ND’s offense is in the red zone. The USC game was a perfect example of their red zone problems. The Irish moved the ball – with ease at times – between the red zones yet they settled for too many field goals. I don’t see field goals beating Alabama, so Kelly has to find a way to turn red area trips into touchdowns.
Click through to the next page for a breakdown of Special Teams and Intangibles, plus a Prediction
Special Teams
Based on what I’ve seen, Alabama has an advantage on special teams. Notre Dame’s punt returning is nearly non-existent, though George Atkinson has shown breakaway ability returning kickoffs. Kelly – while remaining coy about specifics – has indicated he may mix things up in order to spark plug lagging special teams and it seems to me at this point in the season that’s a high risk/high reward strategy. It remains to be seen what changes if any are made.
Alabama’s kicking woes from last year have improved and Cody Mandell has done a better job punting. Christian Jones is a threat to take back kicks and punts and if he’s given space he can make things happen.
Intangibles
Both squads enjoy intangible advantages. First, for Alabama, their leaders have been here before. They are as battle tested in big games as any team in the country and they live for these moments. AJ McCarron answered the call in last year’s championship game and delivered arguably the best performance of his career. This team will not be overwhelmed or intimidated by the scene in Miami. And then there’s that halfway decent head coach roaming their sideline, aiming to add to an already abundant legacy as the best of his generation.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, relishes in the underdog role. After starting the season 7-0, most members of the media, and fans alike, thought the winning streak would end in Norman. The Irish quieted doubters and dominated a solid Oklahoma squad in their own backyard. Others thought a similar fate awaited Notre Dame in Los Angeles, only to have them prove, once again, many people wrong and punch their ticket to south Florida. In all their public comments, ND players have embraced the underdog role and feed off an “us against the world” mentality.
Now there’s another intangible that must be addressed. Visit any message board with rabid SEC fans (I’m looking at you, SECRant) and you’ll learn that the SEC front office, the Red Elephant Club (REC – an all powerful group of Bama alumni/boosters), the CIA, and the gunman from the grassy knoll are all part of a vast conspiracy to give the Crimson Tide every call – in addition to allowing Bama’s offensive line to hold on every play. Likewise, listen to any radio show or visit other message boards and you’ll learn that the University of Notre Dame, the Vatican, the Illuminati, and the Son of God himself are all part of a vast conspiracy to give the Irish every call. This indisputable factor cannot be understated and come January 7th we may well find out just which school’s officiating conspiracy is more far-reaching. Throw in Pac-whatever-the-number-is-now referees and there is sure to be a controversial call at some point.
So here we are: college football’s ultimate prize up for grabs between college football’s ultimate programs. Some Bama fans are highly confident about a blowout. I could be wrong, but I’m not in that camp. Given what I’ve seen from both of these teams, I’d be surprised if this turned into a rout for either team.
Obviously it goes without saying that whoever wins the turnover battle in a defensive struggle has a great chance of winning. Both teams have done a good job taking care of the ball this season and forcing turnovers. Both will have some difficulty running the ball and each squad must make the most of every scoring opportunity. Turning to the passing game, I have to give the edge to the experienced McCarron to make a big play late to seal the victory.
And in a battle scripted for football purists, Alabama defeats Notre Dame 23-20.
Editor’s Note: Tim Giattina is a lawyer in Little Rock, originally from Birmingham, Ala., and an alumnus of Notre Dame. He has watched every play of of every game that both of these teams have played this year (and practically every year of his football-watching life).
Read Tim’s story here.
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